Table of contents 
Kinship and kinship links
El Salvador orphan simulations Forensic mathematics home page. 
Kinship Simulations


LR distributions for identifying a body using various ancestor combinations. (Identifiler, Caucasian. DNA·VIEW Kinship Simulation program) 
To explain the concept of the simulation progam, we begin by reviewing the use of the Kinship program in the context of a particular example.
H_{1} – Halfsibling scenarioS : M + Dad H : N + Dad 
H_{0} – Unrelated scenarioS : M + Dad H : N + ? 

Composite of scenarios
S : M + Dad H : N + ? 

D3 VWA FGA D18 ... M 15 16 14 17 19 22 15 18 N 17 18 15 19 22 25 16 17 S 15 16 17 19 22 24 14 15 H 17 17 15 19 24 25 16 23 
Available genotypes  

D3S1358 0.5 1 / 2
VWA 3.04 (1+q+s)/(2q+2s) q=0.0848 s=0.112
FGA 4.21 (1+r)/2r r=0.135
D18S51 0.5 1 / 2
...
overall LR 1.08 
Assessing H_{1} vs. H_{0} 
S : M + Dad T : M + Dad H : M + Dad/? 
Would T help? 

D3 VWA FGA D18 ...
T 17 17 15 19 24 25 16 23 
A MonteCarlo genotype for T 

"Typical" LR=270 from 10 MonteCarlo simulations  

LR=0.53 LR=4 
LR=10.9 LR=22.9 
LR=63.8 LR=135 
LR=2430 LR=4250 
LR=12370 LR=14460 
Assuming H is an heir, testing T in the CODIS loci will usually provide sufficient proof 
"Typical" LR=23. 95% confident=0.18  2900
10 MonteCarlo simulations:  
LR=0.14 LR=1.7 
LR=4.7 LR=12 
LR=34 LR=70 
LR=108 LR=137 
LR=237 LR=313 
efficacy of a 36SNP panel in establishing halfsiblingship 
