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Brenner CH

Suppose you are missing Kx in a suit. It is (exactly) 52% that the suit splits 1-1. Everybody knows that.

How about missing Q432? J65432? etc.? Will the suit run if you play it from the top?

Missing 2k cards (0<k<7) including one card of particular interest, the probability that either the suit breaks evenly or that the particular card is in the short hand is close to (51+k)%.

k | probability | application |
---|---|---|

1 | 52% | Kx |

2 | 53.13% | Q fourth |

3 | 54.01% | J sixth |

4 | 55.03% | 10 eighth |

5 | 56% | 10 missing, Ace not long |

6 | 57.04% | 12 missing, Ace not long |

7 | 58.2% | ? |