Table of contents |
Kinship and kinship links
El Salvador orphan simulations Forensic mathematics home page. |
Kinship Simulations
|
|
LR distributions for identifying a body using various ancestor combinations. (Identifiler, Caucasian. DNA·VIEW Kinship Simulation program) |
To explain the concept of the simulation progam, we begin by reviewing the use of the Kinship program in the context of a particular example.
H1 Half-sibling scenarioS : M + Dad H : N + Dad |
H0 Unrelated scenarioS : M + Dad H : N + ? |
|
Composite of scenarios
S : M + Dad H : N + ? |
||
D3 VWA FGA D18 ... M 15 16 14 17 19 22 15 18 N 17 18 15 19 22 25 16 17 S 15 16 17 19 22 24 14 15 H 17 17 15 19 24 25 16 23 |
Available genotypes | |
---|---|---|
D3S1358 0.5 1 / 2
VWA 3.04 (1+q+s)/(2q+2s) q=0.0848 s=0.112
FGA 4.21 (1+r)/2r r=0.135
D18S51 0.5 1 / 2
...
overall LR 1.08 |
Assessing H1 vs. H0 |
S : M + Dad T : M + Dad H : M + Dad/? |
Would T help? |
---|
D3 VWA FGA D18 ...
T 17 17 15 19 24 25 16 23 |
A Monte-Carlo genotype for T |
---|
"Typical" LR=270 from 10 Monte-Carlo simulations | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
LR=0.53 LR=4 |
LR=10.9 LR=22.9 |
LR=63.8 LR=135 |
LR=2430 LR=4250 |
LR=12370 LR=14460 |
Assuming H is an heir, testing T in the CODIS loci will usually provide sufficient proof |
"Typical" LR=23. 95% confident=0.18 - 2900
10 Monte-Carlo simulations: | ||||
LR=0.14 LR=1.7 |
LR=4.7 LR=12 |
LR=34 LR=70 |
LR=108 LR=137 |
LR=237 LR=313 |
efficacy of a 36-SNP panel in establishing half-siblingship |
---|